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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 80

Buffalo Bills 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to LV 45, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 30-J.Richard to BUF 38 for 17 yards (38-S.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.40 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.24 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 37, worth -2.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model