Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 74

Las Vegas Raiders 9 – Buffalo Bills 17

(13:21) 7-M.King punts 28 yards to BUF 46, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-57-C.James.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model