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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to LV 15, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.60 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model