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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 27 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(2:06) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to CHI 31, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-E.Royal to CHI 35 for 4 yards (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.53 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 74, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 32, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP