Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 82

Chicago Bears 7 – Tennessee Titans 14

(2:25) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to TEN 27, Center-48-P.Scales. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 35 for 8 yards (53-J.Timu).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.60 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model