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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 33

Chicago Bears 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:01) (Pass formation) 12-M.Barkley pass incomplete short left to 82-L.Paulsen (21-D.Searcy).

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.20 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model