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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 75

Chicago Bears 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(14:17) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to TEN 36, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.89 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model