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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 80

Houston Texans 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:47) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler scrambles up the middle to HOU 41 for 21 yards (31-A.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.05 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 80, worth -1.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 37, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model