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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Houston Texans
4th & 6 at the 53
Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0
What Actually Happened
(10:26) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.40 EP
-
39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.27 EP
- 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK
-1.30 EP
- 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
- 76% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT
-0.23 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.23 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
