Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 78

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 8-D.Kaser punts 53 yards to HOU 25, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-W.Fuller pushed ob at HOU 37 for 12 yards (31-A.Phillips). PENALTY on LAC-31-A.Phillips, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.15 EP
59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model