Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 83

Houston Texans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

(:33) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to LAC 38, Center-46-J.Weeks. 89-I.Burse to LAC 49 for 11 yards (20-D.Jones; 52-B.Peters).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.75 EP
74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model