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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 43

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(14:55) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee pass deep right to 86-E.Swoope to PIT 8 for 35 yards (24-J.Gilbert).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.70 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model