Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(9:18) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 54 yards to IND 27, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.92 EP
58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 81, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model