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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 1

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (Shotgun) 16-S.Tolzien pass incomplete short middle to 80-C.Rogers (23-M.Mitchell).

The Three Options

GO +4.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.29 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model