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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(6:03) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to IND 37, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.35 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 73, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 31, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model