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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(7:34) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to PIT 23, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.77 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model