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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 53

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 6-R.Allen punts 32 yards to NYJ 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.49 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 53, worth -3.22 EP
KICK -2.30 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.10 EP
PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model