Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 62

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to NYJ 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 41-B.Skrine MUFFS catch, recovered by NYJ-10-J.Ross at NYJ 13. 10-J.Ross to NYJ 13 for no gain (31-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.61 EP
59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model