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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 22

New England Patriots 13 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.75 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model