Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 74

New England Patriots 13 – New York Jets 10

(14:55) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.44 EP
55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model