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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 53

New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to NE 12, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.87 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.93 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model