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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 36

New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 2-N.Folk 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-A.Branch), Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards, RECOVERED by NE-54-D.Hightower at NE 40. 54-D.Hightower to NE 46 for 6 yards (70-D.Dozier).

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.76 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP