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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 53

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to KC 13, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.02 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.97 EP
  • 12% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 88% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP