4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 14

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(:19) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 10-T.Hill ran ob at DEN 3 for 11 yards.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +4.58 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 14, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.51 EP