Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 20 at the 96

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to KC 48, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Norwood MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-41-J.Winchester at KC 41. 41-J.Winchester to KC 41 for no gain (87-J.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO -4.09 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.96 EP
74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 96, worth -5.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model