Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 69

Denver Broncos 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

(14:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to KC 14, Center-45-T.Gafford, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model