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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 76

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to DEN 34, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 37 for 3 yards (57-D.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model