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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 56

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to KC 19, Center-45-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.28 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -1.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model