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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 15

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.12 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 15, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model