Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to DEN 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Norwood MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 3. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 5 for 2 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.24 EP
64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model