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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 58

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to DEN 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.81 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model