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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – Buffalo Bills 28

What Actually Happened

(3:33) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 11-M.Lee to BUF 41 for 4 yards (21-N.Robey-Coleman). Caught at BUF 42, crossing from left.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.91 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -1.55 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model