Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 3-B.Nortman punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback. Kick through end zone. PENALTY on JAX-44-M.Jack, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.37 EP
69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model