Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

(7:21) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to JAX 29, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-36-J.Meeks. Ball glanced off helmet of J.Meeks at BUF 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.86 EP
59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model