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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 13
Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7
What Actually Happened
(1:00) 31-J.Williams up the middle to JAX 7 for 6 yards (37-J.Cyprien).
The Three Options
GO
+3.30 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.04 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 13, worth -0.04 EP
KICK
+2.16 EP
- 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT
-0.04 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
