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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 42

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(7:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-B.Nortman punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.39 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP