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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 4

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(14:53) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 4, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP