4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 85

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(8:33) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to BAL 36, Center-48-T.Ott. 14-D.Hester to CIN 36 for 28 yards (89-R.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 85, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 43, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model