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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 29

Cincinnati Bengals 12 – Baltimore Ravens 19

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 85-T.Eifert pushed ob at BAL 16 for 13 yards (57-C.Mosley).

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.20 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 29, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model