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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 18

Cincinnati Bengals 9 – Baltimore Ravens 19

What Actually Happened

(6:04) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.62 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 18, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model