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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 80

Baltimore Ravens 19 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

What Actually Happened

(9:02) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to CIN 36, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 47 for 11 yards (10-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.33 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model