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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 18

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

What Actually Happened

(12:20) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.81 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP