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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 35
Baltimore Ravens 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 9
What Actually Happened
(15:00) 30-K.Dixon left end to CIN 27 for 8 yards (27-D.Kirkpatrick).
The Three Options
GO
+1.94 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.58 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.34 EP
KICK
+0.61 EP
- 59% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
- 41% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT
+0.34 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.34 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
