4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(9:22) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.03 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.78 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model