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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 38

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(13:16) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 28 yards to BAL 10, Center-48-T.Ott, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.89 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP