4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to LV 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 30-J.Richard to LV 38 for 12 yards (57-J.Cash, 27-R.McClain).

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.07 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP