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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Carolina Panthers 25

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to CAR 24, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model