Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 7-M.King punts 56 yards to CAR 16, Center-59-J.Condo. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 35 for 19 yards (47-J.Cowser). PENALTY on CAR-57-J.Cash, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at CAR 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model