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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to CAR 9, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.80 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model