Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 90

Carolina Panthers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

(10:41) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to LV 45, Center-44-J.Jansen. 30-J.Richard to CAR 46 for 9 yards (57-J.Cash).

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.33 EP
66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 90, worth -5.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model